NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market marked its fifth anniversary Monday after surpassing four years of gains. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has risen roughly 119% from its bear-market closing low on Oct. 12, 2022. That session saw the index close at 3,577.03, its lowest since November 2020. As of Friday, the index closed at 7,811.54, representing a 14.1% increase for 2026 and approaching record levels, with a weekly gain of 1.2%.
This phase ranks as the 11th bull market since the 1950s in the historical record, with seven of those having lasted at least four years. While the 119% increase is notable, it remains below the average gain of 184% seen across the bull markets included in the study. Past cycles have seen much larger cumulative advances; notably, the 2009-to-2020 bull market gained 401%, and the 1987-to-2000 cycle increased by 582%. Both periods are among the strongest in historical comparison.
Many bull markets that have reached this stage have maintained positive returns. Out of the previous 10 bull runs, six extended beyond four years. When markets reached a fifth year, the average return was 12%, with a median gain of 15%. The study also indicates an average maximum drawdown of approximately 14% during these fifth years. These figures reflect past market behavior rather than a certainty for the current cycle.
Market resilience supported by earnings growth
During the latest phase of the rally, corporate earnings have demonstrated strength. FactSet reported that S&P 500 third-quarter earnings as of Oct. 9 were tracking 29.6% above the same period last year. This would mark the third consecutive quarter with year-over-year earnings growth exceeding 25%. The growth rate was 29.2% at the end of the quarter on Sept. 30. Among 19 companies reporting by Oct. 9, 84% beat analysts’ average earnings estimates, with aggregate earnings surpassing estimates by 4.9%.
Forecasts for the remainder of the year remain optimistic. Analysts project a 27.6% increase in fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings compared to the previous year. The full-year 2026 earnings growth is estimated at 32.4%. Notably, semiconductor and hardware sectors contribute about 40% to upward revisions of 2026 earnings estimates and account for roughly 75% of the year-to-date revisions to 2027 estimates, according to Barclays research. These data highlight the ongoing importance of technology-related businesses in earnings adjustments.
Interest rate environment persists amid market gains
The market rally continues in the context of rising U.S. interest rates and high government bond yields. On Sept. 16, the Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%. The Fed indicated that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace, and inflation remained elevated. The September projections estimated median economic growth at 2.3% for 2026, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. The next policy meeting is scheduled for Oct. 27 to Oct. 28.
Long-term Treasury yields are also near multi-year peaks as the bull market enters its fifth year. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 5.24% on Oct. 9, with the 30-year yield at 5.60%. Despite these high yields, the S&P 500 ended that session 0.6% higher at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.6%. The markets are approaching new record levels amid robust earnings growth and borrowing costs above earlier bull-market levels.
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