NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – U.S. consumer confidence decreased to its lowest point since April 2014 in September, continuing a three-month downward trend in household sentiment. The Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index fell by 6.7 points to 81.9. The previous month’s figure was adjusted downward to 88.6. Data collected from September 1 through September 23 formed the basis of the survey. During this period, perceptions of current economic conditions and expectations for the upcoming six months both deteriorated.
The Present Situation Index dropped 7.9 points to 109.3, indicating a decline in consumers’ views on business and labor markets. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index decreased by 5.9 points to 63.6, marking the third consecutive month of decline. This index gauges consumer outlooks on income, business conditions, and employment prospects over the next half-year. The declines in July and August preceded September’s drop, and together, these measures pushed the overall confidence index further below its levels earlier this year.
The survey conducted by The Conference Board revealed a noticeable shift in perceptions of current business conditions. Only 18.5% of respondents rated conditions as good, down from 18.8% in August, while those describing conditions as bad increased to 20.4% from 17.3%. Views on the labor market also softened, with 23.6% stating jobs were plentiful, compared to 24.5%, and 21.9% indicating jobs were hard to find, up from 20.3%.
Inflation expectations climb amid persistent fuel prices
In September, consumers anticipated higher inflation rates. The average 12-month inflation expectation increased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, with the median rising to 5.1%. Additional federal data indicated consumer prices grew by 3.4% in August compared to the previous year. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, gasoline prices went up by 3.9% during August. Meanwhile, AAA reported a national average of approximately $4.46 per gallon for regular gasoline on September 29.
Consumers’ planned expenditures showed signs of restraint across multiple categories. On a six-month average basis, intentions to purchase cars and homes declined slightly in September. Expectations for spending on services, including hotels, movies, air travel, and amusement parks, also decreased. However, plans for vacations became more robust, with 42.6% of consumers intending to travel within the next six months—a 0.5 percentage point increase from August—mainly driven by domestic trips.
Forecasts for jobs and income worsen
Projections for business conditions, employment opportunities, and income prospects all saw a decline. Just 15.9% of consumers believed that business conditions would improve, down from 17.0%, while those expecting conditions to worsen increased to 25.4% from 23.3%. The outlook for available jobs also turned more pessimistic, with 14.0% expecting more jobs to be available, compared to 28.4% expecting fewer jobs. Income expectations similarly softened, with 17.9% anticipating gains and 15.4% expecting declines over the next six months.
The survey also reflected broader financial pressures on households. Net perceptions of current family finances turned negative for only the second time since the measure’s inception four years ago. Confidence levels dipped across all age and income groups on a six-month moving average. The online monthly survey for The Conference Board was conducted by Toluna, with September’s preliminary results closed on September 23. The next Consumer Confidence Index update is scheduled for October 27.
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